The CREB(Calgary Real Estate Board) Annual 2022 Forecast by Chief Economist Ann Marie Lurie was a few weeks ago 2021 sales FAR EXCEEDED expectations! Sales for 2021 were 71% vs 2020!!! Listings did but could not keep up with demand! Calgary has the 4th highest population of any City in The average sale price below $500k is WAY MORE AFFORDABLE than any of the other major cities in Toronto, Vancouver & Montreal ALL HAD OVER 20% in their AVERAGE HOME PRICES IN 2021!!! These cities were already experiencing inventory constraints BEFORE the Pandemic. This made it even worse.
Calgary had higher than expected job growth of over 4% We are expecting 5% job growth for 2022. The highest job growth will be in Hospitality as the economy returns to normal. However, there will also be growth in other sectors that were less affected by the pandemic e.g Professional Services, Finance Real Estate. Commodity prices in the Oil & Gas sector are expected to remain high. The question is if that will lead to more investment and job growth!
We are expecting interest rate increases of anywhere between 1-2%. It could be sooner than expected to counteract high inflation. The timing & amount of interest rate increases will have a direct affect on the housing market. It could cause sales growth to continue as buyers take action to avoid paying higher rates.
We have had FULL RECOVERY on prices in detached/semi detached after the crash in the past 6 years. The only exception is the CITY CENTRE which didn’t benefit as much. People don’t see the benefit of being near downtown compared to before the pandemic. Condos have still NOT full recovered but the inventory is much more balanced. It will still take awhile.
Inventory is going to take awhile to increase in detached and semi detached. We aren’t expecting that to happen in the first half of the year. New home builders have drastically cut inventory with the constraints in sourcing materials & the unknown of material prices. Usually the builders would help to alleviate inventory shortages. EXPECT MULTIPLE OFFER SITUATIONS WAY OVER LIST PRICE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. This probably won’t change until the spread of housing pricing between Calgary and the other major Canadian decreases. There are TONS of buyers from BC & Ontario purchasing property in Calgary with HUGE UNCONDITIONAL OFFERS As a buyer, You HAVE TO BE PREPARED TO OFFER A BIG NUMBER WITH A VERY CLEAN OFFER TO WIN NOWDAYS!! They are predicting a modest 4% price growth this year after a 10% increase in 2021. Other Realtors including myself think that is VERY CONSERVATIVE!
4 risks factor that could affect 2022 Numbers:
•INVENTORY LEVELS
•INTEREST RATES
•ENERGY PRICES
•THE PANDEMIC